United States Shipping Industry Report Q1 2013 RnR Market Research Report

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Dallas, TX (prHWY.com) January 11, 2013 - Our overall outlook for the US economy is cautious and we maintain our outlook for subdued growth atthe US's main container ports in 2013, on the back of continuing concerns about the health of the USeconomy. For 2013, we maintain our growth forecast of 2.1%, owing to increasing domestic and externalheadwinds. The downside shock risks remain prevalent, but the balance of evidence suggests that theeconomy has and will continue to avoid recession barring a major crisis. There are two major risks to theeconomy over the next six to 12 months. The first is the impending fiscal tightening, set to impact inJanuary 2013 absent an active policy decision to postpone. The second is the eurozone crisis, whichthreatens the global economy as a whole.

Volumes at US ports face headwinds in the form of sluggish private consumption recovery and slowdemand for exports. US private consumption will continue to recover very slowly as a combination ofstill-high unemployment, ongoing deleveraging, low wage growth and a dependency on governmenttransfers continue to weigh on spending growth. The US export sector is likely to face increasingheadwinds from abroad, centred around reduced European demand amid a eurozone recession andpotential for dollar strength. Just under one quarter of US exports go to the European Union, and theEuropean crisis is likely to impact non-eurozone demand for US goods and services.

Key Industry Data

At the port of Los Angeles (LA) we forecast 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in total tonnagein 2013, to reach 69.5mn tonnes.

At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NY/NJ), growth is forecast to be 1.4% y-o-y in2013, to reach 143.4mn tonnes.

We expect LA to record growth of 4.4% in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput in2013 to reach 8.6mn TEUs.

We expect NY/NJ to record a 5.3% increase in TEU throughput in 2013, to reach 6mn TEUs.Key Industry Trends

Expanded Rail Terminal To Support Savannah Growth

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BMI believes that upside risk is presented to our already-bullish throughput growth forecast for the USPort of Savannah as the Georgia Port Authority (GPA) has announced the opening of its expandedintermodal transfer facility. The greater connectivity presented to the port by the new facility will help thePort of Savannah accommodate the expected increase in volumes once the expansion of the PanamaCanal is completed.

Sandy Poses Risk For New York/New Jersey Forecast

BMI believes Hurricane Sandy, the storm that recently battered the US North East - and particularly itscoastal regions - could lead to a revision of our throughput forecasts for East Coast facilities. The Port ofNew York/New Jersey was the worst affected, and was closed for a number of days. Other facilities arepoised to benefit from the run-off of vessels.

MSC Returns To Port Miami

BMI believes that a new service to call at PortMiami in Miami-Dade County, Florida, will provide upsidepotential to the port's container throughput in the coming years, and could help the facility regain lostvolumes. This ties in with our wider view on the port, that throughput will grow in the wake of thePanama Canal expansion, scheduled to be completed in May 2015.

Risks To Outlook

The US economic recovery remains slow; BMI expects average annual GDP growth of 2.5% to 2021.Further downside is presented by the expected slowdown in Chinese economic growth, which willdamage demand from the US's biggest export market. The eurozone is unlikely to be able to pick up theslack, due to the ongoing crisis there. BMI believes the main risks to our outlook for US container shipping are on the downside. A bearish consumer outlook, combined with the withdrawal of shippinglines from the transpacific route and cuts to federal funding for port projects mean that growth in the boxshipping sector could be slower than expected.

Upside potential is presented to East Coast ports by the expansion of the Panama Canal, due forcompletion in 2015. The project will allow post-Panamax vessels to pass through the Panama Canal tocall at east coast ports, bypassing the traditional US hubs of LA and Long Beach.

On the dry bulk side there is upside potential from the fact that we expect the US to become a net exporterof coal over the medium term as domestic demand slows and Asian demand remains strong. We arealready seeing the development of new port facilities on the West Coast, such as SSA Marine's GatewayTerminal, in order to cater for an expected increase in coal shipments.

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Table Of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
US Petrochemicals SWOT
US Political SWOT
US Economic SWOT
US Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms Of Passenger Growth, 2012
US Market Overview
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemical Production
Competitive Landscape
Upstream
Olefins
Table: Olefins Production Capacity, '000tpa
Aromatics
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity, '000tpa
Mixed Xylenes
Table: Xylenes Capacity, '000tpa
Polyethylene (PE)
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
Table: PE Chain Capacity, '000tpa
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)
Polypropylene (PP)
Table: US PP Capacity, '000tpa
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
Table: PVC Chain Capacity, '000tpa
Polystyrene (PS)
Table: PS Chain Capacity, '000tpa
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity, '000tpa
Industry Trends And Developments
Upstream
Cracker Developments
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
Polymers And Intermediates
Government Policy And Regulations
Collapse Of The PIC-Dow Merger
Industry Forecast Scenario
Petrochemicals Forecasts
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2010-2017
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
US Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United States - GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2016
Company Profiles
BP
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
Dow Chemical
ExxonMobil
Huntsman
Ineos
LyondellBasell
Occidental Chemical
Shell Chemicals
Westlake Chemical
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
Country Snapshot
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry
Cross Checks
Business Environment Ratings
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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